NBA Signs CFTC Pact, Names 2 Prediction Markets

The NBA signed an agreement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Monday to share information on market integrity, and named Kalshi and Polymarket as its preferred prediction market exchanges, according to the regulator, Kalshi and reports by Front Office Sports and Sports Business Journal.

The deals make basketball the latest major US league to make terms with an industry that sells contracts on game outcomes nationwide under federal rather than state rules. They come with conditions the league had pressed for: official data, limits on the markets that can be offered and a ban on insiders trading. The higher minimum age the NBA had asked the regulator to impose was not part of it, according to Sports Business Journal.

In brief

The NBA named Kalshi and Polymarket “preferred” prediction market exchanges, with official Sportradar data and logo rights.
The CFTC and the NBA signed a memorandum of understanding to share information on integrity; CFTC chair Michael Selig said the NBA “joins the MLB and NHL”.
Financial terms were not disclosed; industry sources told SBJ the deals are worth $100M to $200M a year combined.

What the CFTC agreement covers

The CFTC’s release says the memorandum is “intended to protect the integrity of professional basketball in prediction markets”, and that the two sides will share information “by regularly communicating and discussing matters relating to integrity, as well as maintaining fair and transparent prediction markets.” The memorandum itself is published alongside it.

“I’m pleased the CFTC and NBA signed an MOU which continues the Commission’s commitment to increasing data sharing between the agency and professional sports leagues,” said CFTC chairman Michael S. Selig. “The NBA joins the MLB and NHL in taking a responsible step toward protecting sports integrity and market participants from abuses in prediction markets like insider trading and fraud.”

Sports Business Journal reported that the memorandum gives the league channels for input on how all exchanges are regulated, whether or not they join the NBA’s framework, but does not grant its request to raise the minimum age for prediction trading from 18 to 21.

What Kalshi and Polymarket get, and what they give up

In its announcement, Kalshi said it is “becoming a Preferred Prediction Market Exchange of the NBA”. Official NBA data, distributed by Sportradar, will be used to run and settle authorised NBA markets on the exchange. Kalshi said the two sides will “establish direct channels to share integrity data, report suspicious trading, and cooperate on investigations”, and that the agreement “includes restrictions on permissible markets and explicit prohibitions on league and team personnel trading NBA event contracts.”

Kalshi listed its existing safeguards alongside the deal: market surveillance with IC360, work with Signify on online abuse of athletes and coaches, and nationwide self-exclusion. It also quoted NBA commissioner Adam Silver: “Frankly, from at least the NBA standpoint, we have roughly 40 different jurisdictions regulating us right now. So to have a consistent policy nationally, I think would be in our best interest.”

According to Front Office Sports, both exchanges get the right to use NBA intellectual property in their apps and marketing, and players and league and team employees will be barred from trading NBA event contracts. The WNBA is not automatically included, the outlet reported. DraftKings, already an official NBA betting partner, is expanding its agreement to cover prediction markets and nationwide promotion, but it is not a preferred exchange. Front Office Sports said the partners must also follow restrictions the league placed on sportsbooks less than two weeks earlier, including bans on some player props.

Neither the league nor the exchanges disclosed financial terms. Sports Business Journal said industry sources put the combined annual value at $100M to $200M, including rights fees, media spend, data fees and revenue shares. Polymarket had not published its own announcement when TSN checked.

A league trading its objections for a seat at the table

The NBA’s choice is a familiar one in sports betting: rather than fight a product it cannot stop, sign the operators up and write the integrity rules into the contract. What is new is that the counterparty on the rules is a federal regulator. Silver’s line about 40 jurisdictions explains the attraction. A single national framework, with official data and named insiders, is easier for a league to police than a patchwork of state regimes, and the CFTC gets a direct line to the people who can spot a suspicious bet first.

The trade-off is visible in what the NBA did not get. The age-21 request was not granted, according to SBJ, which leaves 18-year-olds able to trade NBA contracts on federally regulated exchanges, the gap the league had asked the regulator to close. The league is also now commercially tied to exchanges whose position could still change: SBJ reported that the agreements address the possibility that US courts could restrict them.

Why ‘preferred’ matters in a crowded field

TSN has followed the contest between Kalshi and Polymarket since the two began competing for the same users, and the media’s appetite for them, such as CNN’s prediction market tie-up. League endorsements are becoming the next battleground: an official data feed and a logo are hard for a newcomer to match. The CFTC’s older enforcement cases are still being argued in court, as a judge’s refusal to cancel its $5 million Gemini settlement showed, and the debate over who should be regulated, the platform or the market, is not settled. With MLB, the NHL and now the NBA signed up, Front Office Sports noted, the NFL is the largest remaining holdout among the major US leagues.