Smartphone Shipments Fell 20% in Q3 2026, the Lowest Q3 Since 2012, Counterpoint Says, as Memory Costs Bite

CONFIRMED as Counterpoint Research’s PRELIMINARY estimates, published 12 October 2026. These are Counterpoint’s estimates of shipments (sell-in), not figures reported by the phone makers. Reuters also reported the findings.

“Global smartphone shipments declined 20% YoY in Q3 2026, the lowest Q3 level since 2012, according to preliminary estimates from Counterpoint Research’s Market Monitor service,” the research firm said on Monday [1]. Reuters also reported the figures on 12 October [2].

Sell-in means phones shipped by manufacturers into shops and distributors, not phones bought by consumers.

Why: the memory cost shock

Counterpoint said “relentless increases in DRAM and NAND prices intensified memory cost shock in Q3” [1]. Phone makers passed the higher costs on to buyers, “driving up global smartphone retail prices by 20% so far in 2026” [1].

DRAM is a phone’s working memory; NAND is the flash storage that holds apps, photos and files.

How the big brands did

All figures are Counterpoint’s preliminary estimates [1].

• Samsung stayed first, with “shipments declining 3% YoY while its market share increased to 23%”. Counterpoint said the Galaxy Z Fold8 series “saw robust initial demand”.
• Apple: “Apple’s market share crossed 20% for the first time in any Q3, reaching 22%, despite a YoY decline in shipments.” Counterpoint said the decline was “largely driven by the absence of a base iPhone 18”.
• Xiaomi had a “steep shipment decline of more than 30% YoY”, with its “market share falling to 10%”.
• OPPO and vivo recorded “shipment declines of more than 20% YoY”, with shares of “9% and 8%, respectively”. Counterpoint’s OPPO figure includes OnePlus and realme.

What the analyst says

Senior Analyst Shilpi Jain said: “Q3 was the second successive quarter to take the full brunt of the memory crisis.” She added: “Consumers are holding on to their devices longer than estimated, increasingly considering refurbished devices and prioritizing higher-value devices” [1].

Outlook

Counterpoint said: “A meaningful recovery in overall volumes is unlikely until component costs and supply conditions improve” [1].

Sources

1. Counterpoint Research (Shilpi Jain, Kamal Singh), “Global Smartphone Shipments Hit a New Low with 20% YoY Decline, Lowest in 14 Years as Continued Memory Constraints Tighten Supply”, 12 October 2026. https://counterpointresearch.com/en/insights/global-smartphone-shipments-hit-a-new-low-with-20-percent-yoy-decline-lowest-in-14-years
2. Reuters (Harshita Mary Varghese), 12 October 2026.

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