A study by the Brussels think tank ECIPE estimates that the EU’s proposed Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA) could cost the European economy €115 billion between 2027 and 2036. The Register reported that the study was commissioned by CCIA Europe, a lobby group whose members include Amazon, Google and Meta.
CADA is still a proposal from the European Commission. It aims to strengthen Europe’s cloud security, resilience and technological sovereignty, partly by favouring cloud services that meet strict sovereignty requirements in public purchasing. The figures below are ECIPE’s own modelled estimates of what it might cost, not official numbers.
What the study says
ECIPE published the paper, written by its director Matthias Bauer, on 13 October 2026. Its main findings:
- €115 billion in “cumulative economic exposure” over ten years under a moderate scenario, rising to up to €233 billion under broader application and falling to €35.6 billion under a narrow one.
- €79.1 billion, nearly 70% of the moderate total, from moving and redesigning software. ECIPE says switching cloud providers can mean replacing databases and rewriting whole applications, not just moving data.
- About €80 billion for private companies in sectors such as banking, energy and health, if Article 31 of the proposal were used to extend the rules to a quarter of them.
- €33.3 billion in direct costs to public budgets.
Per worker, ECIPE puts the cost at €548 across the EU, ranging from €905 in Denmark to €396 in Germany.
“The economic exposure identified by ECIPE’s study is considerably greater than the Commission’s assessment currently captures, and EU policymakers need to take these wider costs into account,” Bauer said.
The lobby’s message
The Register said ECIPE’s central figure is more than six times the Commission’s own upper estimate of €18 billion. It also pointed out that the €80 billion private-sector figure is a modelled scenario, not a bill the Commission has set.
“Member States cannot rely on the Commission’s incomplete estimates when deciding CADA’s strict sovereignty requirements for cloud and AI providers,” said Mitchell Rutledge, CCIA Europe’s policy manager, according to The Register. “Taxpayers and businesses will foot the bill, yet the official assessment missed 70 percent of CADA’s true impact.”
The Register noted that the companies behind CCIA dominate Europe’s cloud market and stand to gain if Europe keeps buying American cloud services. Amazon and Google did not respond to its questions.
What this means
- The sovereignty fight is about money. US cloud giants and their lobby are arguing that EU preferences for European providers would be costly.
- Read the numbers with care. They are modelled scenarios from a study commissioned by an industry group with a stake in the outcome.
- Nothing is law yet. CADA is still a proposal and can change as EU governments and Parliament debate it.
Sources
- ECIPE, “The Real-World Economic Impact of the Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA)” press release, 13 October 2026. https://ecipe.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/PR-OP-082026.pdf
- ECIPE (Matthias Bauer), “The Real-World Economic Impact of the Cloud and AI Development Act (CADA): What CADA Could Mean for Cloud Prices, Migration, Digitalisation and Europe’s Technology Supply Chain”, ECIPE Occasional Paper No. 08/2026. https://ecipe.org/publications/economic-impact-of-cada/
- The Register, “US tech giants warn Europe that ditching US tech giants could cost €115B”, 14 October 2026. https://www.theregister.com/paas-and-iaas/2026/10/14/us-tech-giants-warn-europe-that-ditching-us-tech-giants-could-cost-115b/5303031
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