GE Vernova Raises 2026 Forecast as Backlog Hits $197bn

GE Vernova now expects to generate $16bn to $17bn of free cash flow this year, up from $11.5bn to $12.5bn, after third-quarter orders nearly doubled on demand for gas turbines. The maker of power and grid equipment said in its results release on 28 October that orders reached $29.3bn, up 96% on an organic basis, and that its backlog grew by $20bn in three months to $197bn.

The Cambridge, Massachusetts company filed the release with the US Securities and Exchange Commission as part of a Form 8-K the same morning. It also doubled its share buyback authorisation to $20bn.

In brief

Orders rose 96% organically to $29.3bn; backlog reached $197bn, which GE Vernova expects to pass $200bn in the fourth quarter.
Revenue rose 27% to $12.6bn and net income to $1.29bn from $453m; free cash flow was $5.4bn.
The 2026 forecast is now $46.5bn to $47.5bn of revenue and $16bn to $17bn of free cash flow.

Gas turbines drive a $21.8bn quarter for Power

The Power segment, which includes gas turbines, booked $21.8bn of orders, up 178% organically, including 55 heavy-duty gas turbines and 57 aeroderivative units. Power revenue rose 25% to $6.1bn and its segment EBITDA margin improved by 8 percentage points to 21.4%.

GE Vernova signed 11 gigawatts of new gas equipment contracts in the quarter: 8 GW of slot reservation agreements, which hold production slots for customers, and 3 GW of firm orders. It converted 13 GW of earlier reservations into orders and shipped 5 GW. Gas backlog rose from 53 GW to 64 GW and reservations fell from 63 GW to 58 GW, taking the combined total from 116 GW to 122 GW. The company now expects at least 130 GW by the end of 2026.

Electrification, which makes grid equipment, had orders of $5.4bn, down 9% organically. GE Vernova says a year earlier included large orders for synchronous condensers, machines that help keep the grid stable, and that its book-to-bill ratio was about 1.4. Revenue rose 51% to $3.9bn, including the Prolec GE transformer business, and 16% organically. Its equipment backlog rose 60% from a year earlier to $42.2bn, including $5bn from Prolec GE. Wind orders rose 16% organically to $2.1bn and revenue 4% to $2.7bn. The company said it had resolved all litigation over the Vineyard Wind offshore project.

Profit, cash and a $20bn buyback

Group revenue was $12,642m, up 27% (18% organically). Net income was $1,289m, against $453m a year earlier, and diluted earnings per share were $4.81, against $1.64. Adjusted EBITDA was $1,943m, a 15.4% margin, up 6.9 percentage points organically. Cash from operations was $6.1bn and free cash flow $5.4bn, up $4.7bn, which GE Vernova attributes mainly to working capital.

It ended September with $16.8bn of cash. It bought back about 1.7 million shares for $1.6bn in the quarter and 1.4 million more for $1.3bn between 1 and 23 October. The board raised the buyback authorisation to $20bn from $10bn, with $10.1bn remaining. In October GE Vernova also agreed to buy Trench Group, a maker of high-voltage grid equipment, for the equivalent of $9.0bn, with completion expected in late 2027 subject to regulatory approvals.

The company forecasts 2026 revenue of $46.5bn to $47.5bn, up from $45.5bn to $46.5bn, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.5% to 14.5%, up from 12% to 14%. It expects Power organic revenue growth of 19% to 21% and Electrification revenue of $14.5bn to $15.0bn. For Wind it now expects revenue down by a mid-single-digit percentage and segment EBITDA losses of $400m to $500m, against about $400m before.

“We now expect our backlog to exceed $200 billion in the fourth quarter, with improved margins, and to exit 2026 with at least 130 GW of gas equipment under contract,” said chief executive Scott Strazik. “We continue to innovate and develop new solutions for utility and data center customers to meet growing demand.”

The bottleneck has moved from demand to factories

A backlog of $197bn is roughly four years of revenue at this year’s forecast pace. At that scale, GE Vernova’s results are less about winning business than about how fast it can build and ship. The gas numbers show the shift: the company signed 11 GW of new contracts but shipped only 5 GW, and most new commitments arrived as reservations for future production slots rather than firm orders.

That queue explains why buyers are getting creative. Venture Global has signed frame agreements with GE Vernova and Baker Hughes for up to 16 gas-fired power islands, and Baker Hughes has won a 1.1GW turbine order for a US technology company’s AI build. Financiers are also paying for generators up front, as in Crusoe’s $700m deal with Neuberger. Each is a way to lock in scarce equipment early.

The falling Electrification orders look less worrying alongside a 1.4 book-to-bill and a $42.2bn equipment backlog. The Trench Group deal suggests GE Vernova wants more grid manufacturing of its own, while rivals such as Hitachi Energy are pairing grid kit with generation. Wind remains the weak spot, with forecast losses now wider than before.

The test of the forecast is the fourth quarter, when GE Vernova says its backlog will pass $200bn. It pays its next $0.50 dividend on 24 November.