AI Metals: IEA Sees 30% Copper Gap by 2035

The International Energy Agency says the world’s pipeline of copper mines “points to a potential 30% supply shortfall by 2035”, and copper is the metal AI data centres lean on most, in power cables, busbars, transformers and cooling systems.

That warning, in the IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, frames the materials question for AI at the start of 2026. Most of the metals inside a data centre are not scarce in the geological sense. The pressure points are narrower: how fast new copper mines can be built, and how much of the refining for chip metals sits in one country. This briefing goes through the main metals one by one, using forecasts available in early January 2026.

Copper: forecasters split on 2026 but agree on the long squeeze

Copper carries electricity and heat better than any other affordable metal, which is why it runs through every part of a data centre’s power chain. According to a BloombergNEF analysis reported by Carbon Credits, AI-driven data centres will use about 400,000 tonnes of copper a year on average over the next decade, peaking at 572,000 tonnes in 2028. That is a small share of a very large market. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG), in its October 2025 forecast, put world refined copper use at about 28.1 million tonnes in 2025 and 28.7 million in 2026.

The near-term balance is contested. The ICSG expects a refined surplus of about 178,000 tonnes in 2025 to turn into a deficit of about 150,000 tonnes in 2026, a reversal from the 209,000-tonne surplus it had forecast for 2026 in April. It expects mine output to grow 1.4% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026. Goldman Sachs Research, writing in December after copper hit a record $11,771 a tonne on 8 December, sees a “much smaller 2026 surplus of 160kt” and expects London Metal Exchange prices to hold in a $10,000-$11,000 range next year.

The IEA’s longer view explains why both camps watch supply. It blames the projected 2035 gap on declining ore grades, rising capital costs, limited discoveries and long lead times. Weather adds risk: in 2024, it says, 7% of global copper supply was at risk of disruption from floods or droughts.

Gallium and germanium: a US ban paused, not lifted

Gallium and germanium go into compound semiconductors and optical components used in high-speed networking. China refines most of the world’s supply, and the IEA notes that in December 2024 it restricted exports of gallium, germanium and antimony to the United States. On 9 November 2025 China’s Ministry of Commerce suspended that US-specific ban until 27 November 2026. The notice suspends only the clause containing the US ban; it does not withdraw the other export controls China has placed on these metals.

Tantalum, rare earths and the rest

Tantalum, used in compact capacitors for power delivery on dense circuit boards, is one of the minerals the IEA says has “few viable alternatives without major cost or performance trade-offs”. It is not covered by the Chinese suspension. Rare earth magnets turn up in fans, pumps and hard-drive motors. For rare earths, nickel, cobalt and graphite, the IEA expects supply to keep pace with demand if planned projects proceed on schedule; copper and lithium are the exceptions it singles out. Gold, silver, aluminium and palladium remain in the bill of materials too, but no source used here treats them as an AI-specific supply risk.

TSN’s later reporting on the strike at Antofagasta’s Centinela copper mine, the EU-China understanding on rare-earth export licences and the EU’s 46 new strategic raw-material projects tracks the same pressure points.

AI is a marginal buyer in a market already short of mines

Data centres are not what makes copper tight. Grids, electric vehicles and renewables account for far more of the metal, and the IEA’s 2035 shortfall comes from slow mine development, not from AI. What AI changes is the margin. In a market where the ICSG and Goldman Sachs disagree about whether 2026 ends in a small deficit or a small surplus, a few hundred thousand tonnes of extra demand a year is enough to tilt the balance. Mines take many years to move from discovery to production, so projects that could meet AI-era demand in the early 2030s already need to be under way.

That also means the split between the two 2026 forecasts matters less than the direction both point to. A surplus of 160,000 tonnes and a deficit of 150,000 tonnes are both tiny against a 28-million-tonne market. Neither leaves much room for a large mine outage or a drought year of the kind the IEA warns about.

Concentration, not scarcity, is the risk for chip metals

For gallium, germanium and rare earths, the problem is who refines them. China leads refining for 19 of the 20 minerals the IEA analysed, with an average share of around 70%, which turns export policy into a supply variable. The November suspension shows how quickly that variable can move in either direction, and its end date sits inside 2026. Chip and server makers planning beyond that date are, in effect, planning around a decision that has not yet been taken in Beijing. Diversifying refining outside China takes years, which is why the date on a ministry notice matters as much as any tonnage forecast. The date to watch is 27 November 2026, when the suspension lapses unless Beijing extends it.

IEA Sees a 30% Copper Shortfall by 2035 as AI Adds to Metal Demand

Copper: forecasters split on 2026 but agree on the long squeeze

Gallium and germanium: a US ban paused, not lifted

Tantalum, rare earths and the rest

AI is a marginal buyer in a market already short of mines

Concentration, not scarcity, is the risk for chip metals

Sources

Related stories

Neros Wins $450M Conditional OSC Loan to Build US Drone Supply Chain

Cloudflare Launches Zero Wire, a Free Feed for Critical Flaws

NASA’s Swift Observatory Predicted to Re-Enter on 4 November

OpenAI Says Activation Probes Now Watch Its Models as They Answer

Latest stories