Two market reports on 9 October 2026 describe supply strains in metals used in batteries and industry. Both come from data firms, Mysteel and SMM, and every figure below is theirs. They are survey results and estimates, not official statistics, and neither announces a new government policy.
Lithium: Mysteel says supply is falling short of expectations
Reported (Mysteel survey, Aggie Hu). Mysteel says production plans for LFP (lithium iron phosphate, a common battery type) cathodes and battery cells were revised up for the fourth quarter, while supply “has fallen markedly short of expectations” [1]. It says China’s October lithium carbonate production is projected to rise “just 1.1% MoM to 115,900 tonnes” (MoM means month on month). Chile’s September lithium carbonate exports “fell to 18,900 physical tonnes, down 21.6% MoM”, although Mysteel puts them up 18.6% on a year earlier [1].
Mysteel’s inventory survey, covering 207 sampled players, shows stocks falling “from 203,000 tonnes in early June to 113,600 tonnes at end-September, a cumulative decline of about 44%”. Mysteel adds that “the inventory days could fall to around 15 days in November 2026” [1]. The report also advises buyers to stock up, so read it as market commentary.
Prices (SMM). On 9 October SMM put the battery-grade spot average at 122,350 yuan a tonne, “down 2,600 yuan/mt (-2.08%)”. The most-traded futures contract, LC2701, closed at 117,000 yuan a tonne, down 3.74% [2].
Tungsten: SMM says one market, two prices
Reported (SMM analysis). SMM says overseas mines are accelerating output but “the smelting side cannot keep up” [3]. It describes two routes. For China, SMM’s 65% wolframite concentrate (raw tungsten ore) price was 357,000 yuan a standard tonne, which it converts to “approximately $738/mtu” delivered to China after a 10% deduction. Europe and US contracts are priced off APT (ammonium paratungstate, an intermediate tungsten chemical), which SMM puts at $2,900/mtu in Rotterdam. At an 80% payable, SMM converts that to “approximately $2,320/mtu” for concentrate. An “mtu” is a standard unit of tungsten content. The gap, SMM says, “has exceeded $1,500/mtu” [3].
SMM says “only 3-4 smelters actually possess smelting capability”, and that market feedback indicates spot APT and tungsten oxide trading in Europe and the US has been “virtually zero for a quarter”. It puts APT at $2,700-3,100/mtu, “down $100 MoM” [3].
SMM says what fell in the second half was products: China tungsten bar at $185-190 a kilogram, “down 13.8% MoM”, and European scrap carbide inserts at EUR 65-85 a kilogram, “down 18.9% MoM” [3].
What this does not show
- Official data. These are firms’ surveys and models. SMM says its data are “for reference only”.
- A shortage. Mysteel says supply fell short of expectations, not that supply has run out.
- A forecast that will hold. “Around 15 days” is Mysteel’s “could”.
- Checked policy claims. TSN has not checked SMM’s or Mysteel’s statements on export bans or audit rules, and does not repeat them.
The Bottom Line
Mysteel says Chinese lithium supply is growing slower than hoped while stocks fall. SMM says tungsten ore and tungsten chemicals trade at very different prices. Both are one firm’s reading.
Related on TSN: The Metal Backbone of AI: Essential Minerals Powering Growth in 2026
Sources
- Aggie Hu, “Lithium likely to remain supported by demand beat, supply miss in Q4”, Mysteel, 9 October 2026. https://www.mysteel.net/analysis/5143598-lithium-likely-to-remain-supported-by-demand-beat-supply-miss-in-q4
- SMM, “Lithium Carbonate Daily Review: battery-grade lithium carbonate spot price fell by 2,600 yuan/mt on October 9”, 9 October 2026. https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104149086-smm-lithium-carbonate-daily-review-battery-grade-lithium-carbonate-spot-price-fell-by-2600-yuanmt-on-october-9-with-downstream-players-remaining-cautious-after-the-holiday
- SMM, “Tungsten Analysis: One Market, Two Prices: How to Break the Structural Deadlock in the Tungsten Market?”, 9 October 2026. https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104148615-smm-tungsten-analysis-one-market-two-prices-how-to-break-the-structural-deadlock-in-the-tungsten-market
Background: The Metal Backbone of AI: Essential Minerals Powering Growth in 2026
