In brief
- TrendForce (19 October 2026) says AI data centres and high-capacity backbones are driving a global optical-fibre supply shortfall of 180 million fibre-kilometres in 2026.
- For operators and hyperscalers buying cable now, it projects finished-fibre spot prices at 2.8–5 times 2025 levels or higher, with the squeeze lasting until at least 2028.
- What’s still unknown: how fast preform expansions (TrendForce: typically 18–24 months) and long-term agreements will rebalance the market.
Every number below is TrendForce’s research estimate or forecast, not a TSN measurement.
What shortage does TrendForce describe?
TrendForce links rising demand from AI data centres, data-centre interconnects and high-capacity backbone builds to a 180 million fibre-kilometre global shortfall in 2026.
It says shortages have tightened since late 2025 and are “expected to persist until at least 2028.”
How far have prices moved, on TrendForce’s figures?
| Finished fibre type (TrendForce) | Spot / average vs 2025 level (2026) |
|---|---|
| Finished optical fibre products (overall band) | 2.8–5 times or higher |
| Bend-insensitive fibre (in-data-centre cabling) | average more than five times |
| AI backbone fibre (DCI / high-capacity backbone) | about 2.8 times |
| Mainstream telecom fibre | about 3.7 times |
How tight is supply?
| Indicator (TrendForce) | Figure |
|---|---|
| Global capacity utilisation (2026) | 92% |
| Inventory | from four months in 2024 to one month |
| Some leading suppliers | booked into Q1 2027 |
| Preform expansion lead time | typically 18–24 months |
How large is demand?
TrendForce estimates global demand at 577 million fibre-kilometres in 2026, with data-centre construction about 18–20% of that total, rising to 30–35% in 2027.
Beyond hyperscale CSPs, it says chipmakers and telecom operators are also investing in related infrastructure, lifting fibre needs for interconnects and backbones.
Are buyers locking supply early?
TrendForce says operators are shifting from short-term purchasing to long-term supply agreements (LTAs). As an example it cites a September 2026 Verizon–Corning multi-year deal for 129 million fibre-kilometres (about 80 million fibre-miles) of high-density fibre and connectivity for delivery 2027–2032, to support broadband and AI data-centre backbones.
That deal is TrendForce’s cited example; TSN is not adding other contract details.
Our read
If TrendForce’s frame holds, fibre — not only GPUs — is a multi-year AI constraint: utilisation near full, inventories thin, and preform capacity slow to add. The practical response it describes is LTAs; the catch for late buyers is paying severalfold spot multiples into 2026 while waiting for 2027–28 supply.
What’s still unknown?
- How much of the 180 million fibre-km gap closes via LTAs versus new preform lines
- Regional price dispersion beyond TrendForce’s global averages
- Whether 2028 is an end date or only a floor for the shortage
How we sourced this
- Sole primary: TrendForce press release, 19 October 2026.
- All shortfall, price-multiple, utilisation, inventory, demand-share and Verizon–Corning figures credited to TrendForce in the tables above.
Sources
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