China Says Its EU Hybrid Car Deal Allows Growth From 2025 Levels. Brussels Talked of a Cut. Neither Has Published the Numbers

CONFIRMED: China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) said this in an official statement. The deal’s quota terms have not been made public.

China’s Ministry of Commerce says the new China-EU arrangement on hybrid cars lets Chinese exports to Europe keep growing. In a spokesperson’s question-and-answer statement posted on 12 October at 12:57 Beijing time (05:57 BST), the ministry said: “双方在2025年基础上达成向上安排，确保中国企业的出口空间和稳定增长” (“the two sides reached an upward arrangement on the basis of 2025, ensuring Chinese companies’ export room and steady growth”) [1].

That sounds different from what the EU said three days earlier, when trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič described the same deal as one that “opens the prospect of cutting China’s exports by more than a half” [4].

What China’s ministry said

The ministry was answering a question about foreign media speculating on “the quantities and other details” of the hybrid arrangement [1]. It gave background figures, citing Eurostat, the EU’s statistics office: the EU imported 107,000 hybrid cars from China in 2024 and 302,000 in 2025 (10.7万辆 and 30.2万辆) [1]. Those are MOFCOM’s figures as it cites them; TSN has not checked them against Eurostat.

The ministry set out three principles:

• Growth on 2025: the “upward arrangement” quoted above [1].
• No discrimination: “任何措施都不会专门针对中国产品” (“no measure will specifically target Chinese products”), and “中方获得配额将不会低于欧方的其他任何进口来源地” (“China’s quota will not be lower than that of any other EU import source”) [1].
• WTO rules: the arrangement should comply with World Trade Organization rules, and China “reserves all rights” under the WTO, including taking a dispute to settlement and asking for trade compensation [1].

On fully electric cars, MOFCOM said the EU’s anti-subsidy case reached a “soft landing” (软着陆) in January, and that the EU “will continue to advance company price-undertaking procedures in the EV case, and other review procedures” [1]. A price undertaking is a promise by an exporter to sell above an agreed minimum price instead of paying extra duties.

The Chinese EV news site CnEVPost and Taiwan’s Central News Agency (CNA) also reported the statement [2][3].

Two ways of describing one deal

The EU’s “more than a half” is Šefčovič’s estimate. According to Politico, it was measured against projections of how much China’s exports would have grown without the deal [4][5]. China’s “upward arrangement” is measured against the actual 2025 level.

Both can be true at once. A cap can sit far below a forecast and still sit above last year’s real figure. But TSN cannot say whether that is the case here, because neither side has published the quota number, when it starts, or how fast it can grow. MOFCOM’s statement gives none of these.

What is not known

• The size of the hybrid quota, its start date and any yearly growth rate. None has been officially published.
• How quotas for other countries supplying hybrids to the EU will be set, which matters for China’s “not lower than any other source” condition.
• The EU’s next steps. Per TSN’s earlier report, Šefčovič said EU leaders make the final decision [5].

Sources

1. Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China, “商务部新闻发言人就中欧混动汽车、电动汽车磋商共识答记者问” (spokesperson answers questions on the China-EU hybrid and EV consultation consensus), 12 October 2026, 12:57 Beijing time. https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/syxwfb/art/2026/art_d6a5e2c4e62740868c7f1a7cd061f84a.html
2. CnEVPost, 12 October 2026. https://cnevpost.com/2026/10/12/china-eu-hybrid-trade-allows-growth/
3. Central News Agency (Taiwan), 12 October 2026. https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aopl/202610120118.aspx
4. Maroš Šefčovič, European Commission press remarks, 9 October 2026, as reported by Politico and checked in TSN’s earlier report.
5. TSN, “EU and China Say They Will Ease Rare-Earth Export Licences. It Is an Understanding, Not a New Rule”. https://tsnmedia.org/eu-china-rare-earth-export-licences-fast-track-first-step-sefcovic/

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