ASML Warns Its Planned Supply for 2027 and 2028 “Will Not Fully Meet” Customer Demand as AI Drives Record Sales

ASML, the Dutch company that makes the machines used to print the most advanced computer chips, says its planned production for 2027 and 2028 will not be enough to meet what its customers want.

“We now expect that our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers,” CEO Christophe Fouquet said in the company’s third-quarter results release on 14 October 2026.

ASML said it is “investigating ways to increase capacity for 2028 beyond the 30% increase we previously communicated.” In its second-quarter results, it had said it plans to raise its 2026 capacity for low NA EUV and DUV immersion machines, two of its main chip-printing technologies, by 30% in 2027, and was looking at a further 30% increase for both in 2028.

Why demand is so high

Fouquet said customers keep raising their forecasts of how much equipment they need, “driven primarily by their views on the size and duration of AI-related investments.”

“In light of their demand visibility, some customers are expressing an interest in placing orders with us for 2029 and even 2030,” he said.

The third quarter

According to the release, ASML’s third-quarter results compared with the second quarter as follows:

• Total net sales: €11.7 billion (€11,662 million), up from €9,326 million. Fouquet called it “a record total net sales of €11.7 billion, towards the high end of our guidance”.
• Gross margin: 57.5%, up from 54.0%.
• Net income: €5.0 billion (€4,960 million), up from €2,918 million.
• Earnings per share: €12.95, up from €7.59.
• Systems sold: 113 new lithography systems, up from 86, plus 8 used systems, up from 5.
• Installed Base Management sales: €3,289 million, up from €2,762 million. These are its sales of services and upgrades for machines customers already own.

ASML said it bought back around €4.1 billion of its shares in the quarter, and will pay an interim dividend of €1.88 per share on 4 November 2026.

The outlook

ASML expects fourth-quarter sales of between €14.2 billion and €15.2 billion, with a gross margin of around 57%. For the whole of 2026, it expects sales of between €44 billion and €45 billion, with a gross margin of around 56%.

Update, 14 Oct: ASML’s CFO criticises the proposed MATCH Act

ASML’s Chief Financial Officer, Roger Dassen, said the company opposes a proposal in the US Congress to limit its sales of DUV chipmaking machines to China, Reuters reported. Reuters’ headline summed up his view as saying the measure would be “counterproductive”.

The proposal, known as the MATCH Act, has not been passed and is not law.

Speaking to reporters after the third-quarter results, Dassen said that if the MATCH Act were passed after the US midterm elections, it would speed up China’s development of its own rival technology, according to Reuters. He added that he was “optimistic that common sense will prevail”.

What this means

• ASML’s machines are a bottleneck for AI chips. If ASML cannot make enough machines, chipmakers may struggle to expand as fast as they want.
• AI demand is stretching years ahead. Some customers want to order for 2029 and 2030.
• ASML is looking to build more. It is investigating a bigger capacity increase for 2028.

Sources

1. ASML, “ASML reports €11.7 billion total net sales and €5.0 billion net income in Q3 2026”, 14 October 2026 (press release PDF). https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/4beff1ba-33cc-4f21-b926-43b673c9708d
2. Reuters, “ASML CFO says US Match Act limiting DUV sales to China would be counterproductive”, 14 October 2026. https://d2233.cms.socastsrm.com/2026/10/14/asml-cfo-says-us-match-act-limiting-duv-sales-to-china-would-be-counterproductive/

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