Tesla: The Last 12 Months, What Shipped, What Slipped and What Is Only Planned

This is a look back at Tesla from October 2025 to 11 October 2026, built from Tesla’s own investor decks and SEC filings, regulator documents and a small number of named outlets. Each item is labelled. Confirmed means a primary document was read. Reported means a named outlet said it and the primary was not read. Claim means Tesla or Elon Musk said it, and it is their claim, not a fact. Where a claim has no confirmation, we say so.

October to December 2025

• Products (Tesla statement, Q3 deck). Tesla launched Model 3 and Model Y Standard, each with “over 300 miles of range”, from $36,990 and $39,990, and began deploying FSD (Supervised) v14 [1].
• 22 October, Q3 2025 results (Confirmed). Revenue was $28,095 million, up 12% year on year. GAAP operating income was $1,624 million, and free cash flow was $3,990 million, which Tesla called a record. Deliveries of 497,099 and storage deployments of 12.5 GWh were also records [1].
• 6 November, pay award (Confirmed, 8-K). Shareholders approved the 2025 CEO Performance Award: 423,743,904 shares in 12 tranches, with a first market-cap milestone of $2 trillion rising to $8.5 trillion. Tesla’s preliminary fair-value estimate is $87.75 billion. The vote was 1,892,235,822 for and 564,940,908 against. A shareholder proposal on investing in x.AI was “not approved under the bylaw standard” [9][10].
• 19 December, Delaware (Confirmed). The Delaware Supreme Court reversed the rescission of Musk’s 2018 CEO Performance Award [11][19].
• December (Confirmed, Q4 deck). Tesla began testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin [3].

January to March 2026

• 2 January (Confirmed). Q4 2025 deliveries were 418,227 and production 434,358. Full-year 2025 deliveries were 1,636,129 [2].
• 28 January, Q4 and FY2025 results (Confirmed). Q4 revenue was $24,901 million. FY2025 revenue was $94,827 million, down 3% [3]. Tesla also said on 16 January it would invest “approximately $2 billion” in xAI preferred stock [3].
• Musk on Model S and X (Claim, 28 January). “It’s time to basically bring the Model S and X programs to an end with an honorable discharge,” he said on the call. Tesla’s Q2 deck later confirmed the S and X lines at Fremont were decommissioned [7].
• Robotaxi, Austin (Confirmed, Q4 deck). From January Tesla began removing the safety monitor from some customer rides in Austin, “on a limited basis” [3].
• February (Reported). Electrek reported the first Cybercab production unit came off the line at Giga Texas.
• 18 March, NHTSA (Confirmed). NHTSA upgraded its probe of FSD in reduced roadway visibility to Engineering Analysis EA26002, covering an estimated 3,203,754 vehicles. It lists nine incidents, two with injuries and one fatality. It is a defect investigation, not a finding of wrongdoing, and the sources read show it still open [13].

April to June 2026

• 2 April (Confirmed). Q1 deliveries were 358,023, production 408,386 and storage 8.8 GWh [4].
• 10 April, Netherlands (Confirmed). The Dutch vehicle authority RDW issued a type approval for FSD Supervised. It stresses the system is “not self-driving” and is “currently valid only in the Netherlands”. EU-wide use needs a Commission application and a majority vote of member states [18].
• April, robotaxi (Confirmed, Q1 deck). Tesla launched unsupervised rides in Dallas and Houston [5].
• 22 April, Q1 results (Confirmed). Revenue was $22,387 million, up 16%. GAAP operating income was $941 million and free cash flow $1,444 million [5].
• Recalls (Confirmed, NHTSA). 173 Cybertrucks (brake rotor stud holes may crack) [16]; 218,868 vehicles (rearview image may be delayed in reverse) [15]; 14,575 Model Y (certification label may be missing) [17].
• May and June, Europe. Lithuania was reported as the first EU state to recognise the Dutch approval, followed by Estonia, Denmark and Belgium (Reported). Tesla’s Q2 deck confirms approvals in all four, with customers there driving “over 50 million kilometers (31 million miles)” on FSD as of July [7].

July to September 2026

• 2 July (Confirmed). Q2 deliveries were 480,126, production 451,758, and storage 13.5 GWh [6].
• July, robotaxi (Confirmed, Q2 deck). Unsupervised rides launched in Miami, Orlando and Tampa. Employee Cybercab rides began on the Giga Texas campus, and Model YL launched in the US [7].
• 22 July, Q2 results (Confirmed). Revenue was $28,236 million, up 26%. GAAP operating income was $398 million, a 1.4% margin. Free cash flow was negative $1,092 million, and capex $5,789 million. Tesla says trailing twelve-month revenue passed $100 billion for the first time, and active FSD subscriptions were 1.48 million [7]. Reuters reported Tesla missed analysts’ profit forecasts [7].
• 3 September, Cybercab (Confirmed, NHTSA). NHTSA’s record says Tesla “began commercial deployment with a small number of its Cybercab vehicles in Austin”. The vehicles lack a steering wheel, pedals and mirrors. NHTSA opened an Open Audit Query on Tesla’s certification basis, an audit and not a defect investigation, although some outlets called it an investigation [14]. Public booking via the Robotaxi app was reported from 4 September.
• 24 September, Semi (Claim). Tesla’s Semi account posted “Semi is here. Today, we’re launching high volume production” via @Tesla on X [21]. Electrek reported Tesla’s stated capacity of 50,000 trucks a year at its Nevada plant (Tesla’s figure, via Electrek).
• 24 September, Cybercab count (Claim). Via @robotaxi on X, a fleet post read “420 Model Ys 69 Cybercabs” [20].
• 29 September (Confirmed, 8-K). Tesla entered a $20.0 billion three-year delayed-draw term loan, an $8.0 billion five-year revolver and a $2.0 billion 364-day revolver. No loans were outstanding, and Tesla “does not currently plan to draw on the facilities in 2026” [12].

October 2026, to 11 October

• 2 October, Q3 deliveries (Confirmed). Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles (Model 3 and Y 478,237), produced 464,391 and deployed 13.7 GWh of storage [8]. Q3 2025 was 497,099, so deliveries are about 2.1% lower year on year; that percentage is TSN arithmetic, not Tesla’s.
• Deliveries by quarter, Q3 2025 to Q3 2026 (Confirmed): 497,099; 418,227; 358,023; 480,126; 486,532 [1][2][4][6][8].
• 10 October (Claim). Via @robotaxi on X: “One month after launch, we’ve scaled to 300+ Cybercabs serving Austin – an 8x increase in 30 days.” TSN has not verified this [20]. See our Cybercab report for the Philadelphia crash and the Texas registry count.
• Europe. Tesla renamed FSD (Supervised) “Tesla Assisted Driving” on many European sites, and Slovakia’s transport minister said it plans to recognise the Dutch approval (Reported). Details are in our FSD in Europe post.

Roadmap: what has been announced

Everything in this section is a plan, a company claim or guidance. None of it is a delivered fact.

• Q3 results, 21 October 2026 (Confirmed schedule). Tesla’s 8-K sets the Q&A for 4:30 pm CT [8].
• Roadster (Reported). The demo moved from 1 October to 15 October 2026, expected at SpaceX’s McGregor, Texas site, per Electrek and TechCrunch. Electrek says production is “guided for 2027 or 2028” without saying who guided. Earlier dates cited include end 2025 and 1 April 2026.
• Optimus (Plans and Musk claims). The Q4 deck said Tesla planned to unveil Gen 3 in Q1 2026 [3]. On 31 March Musk said Optimus 3 “needs some finishing touches”, and on the 22 April call, per Electrek, Gen 3 would come “probably middle of this year” with Fremont production in “late July or August”. The Q2 deck says production is “anticipated later this year” [7]. We found no Tesla statement that Gen 3 has been unveiled or that production has started; that is an absence of evidence, not a confirmation. The first-generation line is “designed for 1 million robots a year”, and a Giga Texas line is “designed for long-term annual production capacity of 10 million robots” [5].
• Cybercab and Semi. The Q1 deck said “We expect volume production of both Cybercab and the Tesla Semi this year” [5]. Answers to an NHTSA Special Order were reported due 30 October (Reported, EVwire).
• Robotaxi expansion. In January Tesla listed seven metros for “1H 2026”. By the Q2 deck, Phoenix and Las Vegas remained “Preparations Underway”, so those dates slipped [3][7].
• FSD. Tesla says it will “eventually deploy unsupervised autonomy” on the Robotaxi fleet and customer cars, with no date [5]. An EU-wide vote was reported as not before December. On China, Tesla says only that it continues “to make progress on approval” [5].
• Chips, Megapack and capex. AI5 production is planned for 2027 and AI6 for 2028 [3]. Megapack 3 production in Texas is “planned for this year” [7]. Capex is guided “in excess of $25 billion in 2026” [11].
• CEO award targets (not forecasts). 20 million vehicles delivered (9.7 million at Q2 2026, per the deck), 10 million active FSD subscriptions (1.48 million), 1 million bots and 1 million robotaxis [7][9].

Contradictions and open questions

• Robotaxi cities: the Q2 deck says “seven major metros”, counting the SF Bay Area, which has a safety driver; six are unsupervised.
• Optimus: Q1 for the reveal, then mid-2026, then no date on the Q2 call. Production was “late July or August” per Musk, and “later this year” per the Q2 deck.
• Cybercab status: the Q1 deck says “Pilot Production”; the Q2 deck says “Production”. Electrek and electrive give different start dates.
• Fleet counts are not comparable: 69 Cybercabs (@robotaxi, 24 September), 300+ (@robotaxi, 10 October), and 739 authorised vehicles including Model Y (TeslaNorth, via the Texas registry).
• xAI or SpaceX: the Q4 deck says xAI preferred; the 10-Q says the $2.00 billion stake is now SpaceX common stock.
• Not verified: Tesla’s own pages were blocked to us, so Tesla’s news posts were not read directly, and earnings-call transcripts were not opened.

Sources

1. Tesla Q3 2025 update deck, SEC exhibit, 22 October 2025. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828025045861/exhibit991.htm
2. Tesla Q4 2025 production and deliveries, SEC exhibit, 2 January 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026000016/exhibit9914.htm
3. Tesla Q4 2025 update deck, SEC exhibit, 28 January 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026003837/exhibit991.htm
4. Tesla Q1 2026 production and deliveries, SEC exhibit, 2 April 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026022956/exhibit9911111.htm
5. Tesla Q1 2026 update deck, SEC exhibit, 22 April 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026026551/exhibit991.htm
6. Tesla Q2 2026 production and deliveries, SEC exhibit, 2 July 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026046717/exhibit99111111.htm
7. Tesla Q2 2026 update deck, SEC exhibit, 22 July 2026 (Reuters, 22 July, for the profit-forecast miss). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026049213/exhibit991.htm
8. Tesla Q3 2026 production and deliveries, SEC exhibit, 2 October 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026064366/exhibit991111111.htm
9. Tesla 8-K, annual meeting results and CEO award, 7 November 2025. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000110465925108507/tm2530590d1_8k.htm
10. Tesla 10-K FY2025, 29 January 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026003952/tsla-20251231.htm
11. Tesla 10-Q, Q2 2026, 23 July 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026049270/tsla-20260630.htm
12. Tesla 8-K, credit facilities, 29 September 2026. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000162828026063820/tsla-20260929.htm
13. NHTSA, EA26002 opening resume, 18 March 2026. https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2026/INOA-EA26002-10023.pdf
14. NHTSA, AQ26002 Cybercab audit query resume, 3 September 2026. https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/inv/2026/INOA-AQ26002-17078.pdf
15. NHTSA, recall 26V283 acknowledgement, 5 May 2026. https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2026/RCAK-26V283-8069.pdf
16. NHTSA, recall 26V255 Part 573 report, 27 April 2026. https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2026/RCLRPT-26V255-9062.pdf
17. NHTSA, recall 26V315 acknowledgement, 21 May 2026. https://static.nhtsa.gov/odi/rcl/2026/RCAK-26V315-9768.pdf
18. RDW (Netherlands), explanation of European type approval for Tesla, 10 April 2026. https://www.rdw.nl/en/news/2026/rdw-explanation-of-european-type-approval-tesla-with-provisional-validity-in-the-netherlands
19. CNBC, Delaware Supreme Court on Musk pay, 19 December 2025. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/19/musk-tesla-pay-delaware-supreme-court.html
20. Robotaxi (@robotaxi) on X, official Tesla account. https://x.com/robotaxi
21. Tesla (@Tesla) on X, quote of the Tesla Semi launch post, 24 September 2026. https://x.com/Tesla/status/2103290825618960607
22. Named outlets, items marked Reported (Electrek, TechCrunch, electrive, EVXL, EVwire, TeslaNorth, Reuters headlines): page URLs are not recorded in TSN’s research file and the primaries were not read.

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